Euro exchange rate not to exceed RSD 115 in 2014

Source: Blic Thursday, 21.11.2013. 11:17
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(Photo: I.Vukša)
Dinar will remain stable, the central bank claims. Bankers and economists have the same attitude. Half of the inflation rate compared to 2012, as well as a 30% export increase in comparison to last year, are the main reasons why our exchange rate will be similar to this year’s one.

Since the last month, local currency is even significantly stronger. This was, as NBS claims, influenced by the savings measures of the Government as well as increased interest of buyers of securities. As of the beginning of the year, NBS bought EUR 375 mil at the foreign currency market but it sold 425 mil at the same time. This made dinar neither to increase in value too much on daily level nor to decrease. Explaining recent record purchase of EUR 100 mil, Jorgovanka Tabakovic, Governor of NBS, points out that it was a reaction to, so to say "leaps of temporary character".

- Temporary jumps are amortized the same as in any country which has targeted inflation and a fluctuating exchange rate. As long as we speak about temporary leaps, we will reach this way. We neither aim at profit, not to maintain commodities level. The basic objective is prevention of big oscillations while NBS and the state do not loose foreign currency reserves - the Governor points out.

Ivan Nikolic from the Economic Institute says we are entering the stability stage with respect to NBS objective, which are low inflation and a stable exchange rate. Bankers think it is realistic to expect mid-term exchange rate stability although it could be expected in the long run as well.

- If economy growth of 2014 reaches more than 2%, it is realistic to expect that the exchange rate will be very stable - Dragoslav Velickovic from Societe Generale bank points out.

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