Lower Coffee Bean Crops in South America Reflect on Prices in Serbia

A 180-gram coffee pack has reached a price of RSD 420 in the Serbian market. Traditional coffee packs of 200 grams by the two biggest producers in Serbia have become more expensive by 55 to 115 dinars in a year. Last year in September, the same pack cost RSD 220 to 270, and now it’s mostly RSD 275 to 385, whereas the discount prices are RSD 240 to 300.

Certain small producers sell coffee at the lowest price. A 200-gram pack costs 250 to 280 dinars, or 220 dinars at a discount. The most expensive ones are smaller packs of 180 grams, which are said to contain the best-quality coffee, and they are sold for 350 to 420 dinars.

In the past 12 months, the price of coffee has increased several times, and as we’ve learned at store chains, in August, a big producer in our market raised the prices of its brands by 20%. According to the data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, from the end of July 2021 to August 2022, that product, including both traditional and instant coffee, became more expansive by 26.1% on average.

At the end of August, the Wall Street Journal announced that it was expected that the lower coffee bean crops in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer, could lead to a major increase in the price of raw coffee beans worldwide in the coming months. According to the report of the International Coffee Organization from July this year, the global consumption of this product is expected to increase and exceed the production by the end of the year, which, along with the lowering of the crops, could bring its prices to new record highs.

Annually, Serbia imports around 30,000 tons of coffee. It mostly arrives from Brazil, the biggest producer of the Arabic coffee, which supplies one third of the global market. We get the robusta coffee from Vietnam, Uganda, Costa Rica, Colombia, Jamaica and Indonesia. Depending on the kind and the country of origin, the flavor varies too.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the trading data show that coffee futures grew nearly 90% last year as the drought and the frost affected the Brazilian production. In February, coffee prices reached a ten-year maximum of USD 2.59 per pound, an increase of 18.06% compared to the previous year.

Market analysts expect a further increase in prices due to the special circumstances of coffee bean harvesting in Brazil. Due to the extreme weather conditions in 2021, the expectations for this year’s harvest are low, especially considering the increase in the costs of fertilizers and transport.

In addition to Brazil, the plantations in Colombia, another big exporter of coffee, have also been affected by the more humid than usual weather. According to some estimates, this year’s crops at certain farms are expected to be 50% lower.

Republički zavod za statistiku

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

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