National Bank of Serbia Projects Gradual Drop of Inflation from Second Trimester

Source: eKapija Thursday, 13.01.2022. 09:32
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According to the data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, inflation in December 2021, compared to November 2021, amounted to 0.4%, whereas, compared to December 2020, it was 7.9%. The average annual inflation in 2021 amounted to 4%. The National Bank of Serbia estimates that, in the first trimester of the current year, the inflation will probably hover around the December level (7.9% y-o-y), after which it will gradually start dropping and is expected to return to the target band of 3% plus/minus 1.5% in the third quarter.

– From the second trimester, we expect its gradual drop, and it should return within the target band during the third trimester. At the end of the year, we expect y-o-y inflation around the central target of 3%, and considering the high base from 2021, there’s a possibility of the total inflation being in the lower half of the target band of 3% plus/minus 1.5% at the end of the year – NBS says.


They add that inflation risks in the upcoming period pertain primarily to the movement of the prices of primary agricultural products, the world price of energy sources, the quickness of the global economic recovery and the duration of the problem with the global supply chains.

– When it comes to domestic risks, inflation will largely depend on the outcome of the next agricultural season, which, for the purposes of projections, has been presumed to be average. This entails a mild growth of agricultural production compared to 2021, which was lower than average due to the drought – they say.

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